The word, cabal, has played a significant part in Nigeria’s recent political history. When Nigeria’s military president Ibrahim Badamai Babangida annulled the 1992 general election, the narrative that came to light was that of a cabal that held General Babandiga hostage insisting that MKO Abiola the winner of the election would not be allowed to gain power and eventually become the elected president of the country.
What made the cabal so important was its stranglehold on IBB to the extent that his continued stay and relevance in office diminished at an accelerated rate, leading to IBB stepping aside.
President Yar’adua tenure with the return to democracy, started on a very optimistic note with his acceptance of the fact that his election was flawed. Nigerians were awed by Yar’adua simplicity, but above all his readiness to unite the country. Yar’adua made significant success during his short tenure which ended with his death.
His death created a near vacuum, when Yar’adua’s deputy, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was faced with an uphill struggle to continue and finish the tenure which was in the first instance a Yar’adua- Jonathan government. Vice President Jonathan was prevented by what was described as a cabal supposedly headed by Yar’adua’s wife and some arrowheads in her late husband’s administration. They felt that it wasn’t right for Vice President Jonathan to take on the office of the president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
The country was held in a political limbo for 83 days while governance was suspended. This cabal held sway until the doctrine of necessity, came to Nigeria’s rescue from the jaws of what was increasingly seen as what might have been the end of the country’s new democracy.
Fast forward to 2024, the word cabal has reemerged in the country’s political discourse. This time around it’s not coming from political agitators rather it’s coming from Nigeria’s largest investor and industrialist Aliko Dangote.
Africa’s richest individual’s attempt to resolve Nigeria’s perpetual dependence on imported refined petroleum products has caused a major push back by major importers of petroleum products coincidental with the tacit support of the petroleum industry regulator and Nigeria’s national oil company, the NNPCL. Dangote is crying foul and fingers corruption in Nigeria’s oil industry and the country’s bureaucracy. This drama came to a crescendo when the NNPCL managing director came out and accused Dangote refinery of substandard petroleum products.
The irony of such accusation among others, couldn’t be far fetched because Dangote has already started exporting refined petroleum products to Europe and South America. This feat can’t happen without Dangote’s products meeting international standards.
Aliko Dangote says that his motivation of building his refinery is to aid the rapid industrialisation of the country and bring an end to the recurring problems importing petroleum since 1972. Opponents of Dangote accuse him of wanting to create a monopoly. Creating a monopoly against the backdrop of three existing refineries in the country, which strangely have refused to be operational?
The continued non operating status of the NNPCL refineries cannot be separated from the continuing import of petroleum products by those whose interests are best served with those moribund industries. The sound of monopoly isn’t coming from ordinary citizens rather it’s rather coming from the small elite that has benefited from the rot in the petroleum industry. These are the main cabal of the larger cabal that has held Nigeria back from evolving into a strong political economy and ultimately a nation.
What makes the current situation familiar is what appears like a state of helplessness or nonchalant approach by the government in power. With the government struggling to douse the ineptitude displayed by government officials, it would seem that it’s either at the mercy of the petroleum marketers lobby or in cohort with them. This situation puts the patriotism of those in government under scrutiny if not suspicion.
At the heart of the matter, is the question, when would Nigerians be ready to birth a nation? In as much as Nigerians with particular reference to the elite are comfortable with a system that is weak and constantly undermined just to foster their self interest, then extinguishing the spirit of the cabal will forever remain a long shot. Nigeria we hail thee.
Olugbenga Adebanjo
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